High-flying Cardinals pay visit to struggling Mountaineers
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
02/11/2012 - Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 24th-ranked Louisville Cardinals take aim at their sixth straight win today, as they pay a visit to the West Virginia Mountaineers in Big East Conference action.
Louisville is coming off an 80-59 rout of visiting Connecticut on Monday night, improving coach Rick Pitino's club to 19-5 on the year and 7-4 in conference play. The Cardinals have clearly had an impressive run thus far, but they have proven to be somewhat mortal on the road (4-3). They have however, won their last two in enemy territory -- at Pitt and at Seton Hall.
West Virginia streaked out to a 15-5 start, but losses in four of its last five has the team sitting at 16-9 overall, 6-6 in conference, and has the Mountaineer faithful wondering just how good the team really is this year. Coach Bob Huggins' club is coming off a 55-51 loss to visiting Notre Dame, the setback being just the third in 13 home games for WVU to this point in the campaign.
Louisville owns an 8-4 lead in the all-time series with West Virginia, but the Mountaineers won the most recent meeting, 72-70, last March in Morgantown.
Louisville is outscoring its opponents by roughly 10 ppg this season, and the team is permitting the opposition an average field goal percentage of only .369 (best in the Big East) while forcing more than 16 turnovers per outing. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are guilty of 15 giveaways per game, and while they average nearly 72 ppg, they are hitting their three-point field goals just 32.2 percent of the time. UofL has four double-digit scorers in the form of Kyle Kuric (13.0 ppg), Russ Smith (12.1 ppg), Chris Smith (10.4 ppg) and Gorgui Dieng (10.4 ppg) -- a fifth player, Chane Behanan (11.1 ppg), joins the ranks when referring to Big East games only. Chris Smith was high man for the Cards in the recent win over UConn, netting 16 points on the strength of four three-pointers, the team draining 11 treys on the night. Dieng added 15 points, Kuric chipped in with 10, and Behanan grabbed 12 of the team's 28 rebounds. The Huskies were held to 35.1 percent field goal efficiency, and only three of their 14 long-range attempts found the bottom of the net.
Kevin Jones had his string of consecutive games in which he scored at least 20 points end at nine, as he tallied 14 points on 6-of-15 shooting in West Virginia's recent loss to Notre Dame. Jones pulled down 12 rebounds in logging his 16th double-double of the season for the Mountaineers, who shot just 41.4 percent from the floor and converted only 2-of-16 three-point tries (.125) against the Fighting Irish. Jabarie Hinds scored 17 points and Deniz Kilicli added 16 in defeat, as both team's took exceptional care of the basketball, combining for a mere eight turnovers -- WVU having only three. Through 25 games, the Mountaineers are putting up 73.6 ppg on 45.4 percent shooting from the floor, which includes a disappointing 31.7 percent showing from beyond the arc. They have done well in guarding against the three-pointer though, yielding just a 31.0 percent success rate to the opposition, and they own a +6.0 rebounding margin (second-best in the conference). Jones (20.6 ppg, 11.2 rpg) is a virtual shoe-in to be named Big East Player of the Year as he leads the league in both scoring and rebounding, while ranking in the top-10 in field goal percentage (.528) and minutes played (38.2). Bryant (16.9 ppg) and Kilicli (11.3 ppg) are both averaging double figures in the scoring column as well for West Virginia.
Princeton, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 25th-ranked Harvard Crimson will look to add onto their best start in school history as they head to Jadwin Gym to take on the dangerous Princeton Tigers in Ivy League action. This will be the first of tw
<< Georgia seeks upset of No. 20 Mississippi State
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A good old-fashioned dog fight will take
place in Starkville today, as SEC foes Georgia and Mississippi State do battle
at Humphrey Coliseum.
Georgia comes in with an overall record of 11-12, and the team's
<< Staal set to return as Pens host Jets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The well-rested Pittsburgh Penguins hope a three-game
homestand and the return of Jordan Staal can get them back on track today, as
they'll try to avoid losing for the fourth time in five games when they host
the Winnipeg Jet
<< Sens try to build momentum vs. Oilers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a lengthy losing streak finally over, the Ottawa
Senators hope they can keep heading in the right direction when they host the
Edmonton Oilers today at Scotiabank Place.
The Senators went 0-6-1 from Jan. 21-Feb. 7, bu
<< Spurs take Rodeo Road Trip to New Jersey
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Antonio will resume its annual Rodeo Road Trip on
Saturday in New Jersey by welcoming back Manu Ginobili to the lineup.
Ginobili, who has missed more than a month with a broken left hand, will
likely come off the bench
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles will try to keep pace in the race for the Big East Conference regular-season title, as they entertain the Cincinnati Bearcats today at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee.
'Canes and 'Noles duke it out in ACC action >>
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A battle of Sunshine State foes in the ACC
takes place in Tallahassee this afternoon, as the Miami-Florida Hurricanes do
battle with the 15th-ranked Florida State Seminoles.
Miami comes in seeking its sixth
Spartans battle Buckeyes in pivotal Big Ten brawl >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As if they could squeeze any more drama out of
this evening's Big Ten Conference showdown with the 11th-ranked Michigan State
Spartans, the third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes will be seeking their 40th
straight hom
Racers seek turnaround against Governors >>
Murray, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Now that the ninth-ranked Murray State Racers
have finally lost their first game, they can now turn their attention to
winning their third straight Ohio Valley Conference regular season
championship, when they host
Top-10 collision on tap in Columbia >>
Columbia, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-10 foes square off in a crucial Big 12
affair, as the fourth-ranked Missouri Tigers welcome the sixth-ranked Baylor
Bears to Mizzou Arena this afternoon.
Frank Haith's first season in Columbia has been hig
Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence
Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.
Work left to do:
Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.
Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.
DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...
West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.
Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.
For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com
For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.