Mutuel field favored in Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Horseracing Betting Lines
02/08/2012 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The mutuel field, undefeated Algorithms and Union Rags are listed as the three favorites for the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager for the 2012 Run for the Roses.
The pool is comprised of 23 individual three-year-olds plus the mutuel field. Wagering for the Future Pool begins Friday at noon (et) and concludes Sunday at 6 p.m. (et).
As has been the custom the mutuel field is the early favorite at 8-5. The mutuel field includes all three-year-olds not listed in the pool.
Holy Bull Stakes winner Algorithms is the top individual three-year-old at 8-1. The colt upset 2011 champion two-year-old Hansen in the Holy Bull last month.
Union Rags is at 10-1. The colt was undefeated heading into last November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He finished second, a head behind Hansen. Union Rags is expected to make his 2012 debut at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 26.
Hansen is 12-1 in the opening odds.
"The mutuel field has been a solid favorite in every opening pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and, given the loss by two-year-old champion Hansen in his first start as a three-year-old, there is every reason to think the 'all others' bet will be a strong-to-heavy favorite in what appears to be a wide-open crop of Kentucky Derby candidates," said track handicapper Mike Battaglia. "The 'now' horse is Algorithms, who is unbeaten, comes from the Pletcher barn, has a strong pedigree and easily handled the reigning two-year- old champ in the Holy Bull. The speed figures assigned to that win were impressive, so you can expect a lot of bettors to move in his direction. But every pool has interesting Derby prospects at attractive odds, and we should remember that last year's Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, did not even appear as an individual wagering interest until Pool 3. So much can happen on the road to the Kentucky Derby."
Here is the complete list of the 24 betting interests for the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
Number Wagering Interest Morning line odds Final odds:
1. Algorithms 8-1
2. Alpha 20-1
3. Battle Hardened 30-1
4. Creative Cause 20-1
5. Discreet Dancer 15-1
6. Dullahan 15-1
7. El Padrino 20-1
8. Empire Way 50-1
9. Ever So Lucky 20-1
10. Fed Biz 20-1
11. Gemologist 20-1
12. Hansen 12-1
13. I'll Have Another 20-1
14. Junebugred 50-1
15. Liaison 20-1
16. Longview Drive 50-1
17. Midnight Transfer 50-1
18. Mr. Bowling 50-1
19. Out of Bounds 20-1
20. Rousing Sermon 30-1
21. Sabercat 30-1
22. Take Charge Indy 30-1
23. Union Rags 10-1
24. All Other 3YOs (field) 8-5
The remaining two Future Wagers will be held March 2-4 and March 30-April 1.
The 138th Kentucky Derby will be conducted on Saturday, May 5 at Churchill Downs.
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What Is the Point Spread?
What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?
In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
How to Read Point Spreads
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
- Philly wins the actual game by any amount of points
OR
- Philly loses the game by less than 7 points.
-
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
For Those Who Like to Consider Things Mathematically
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
- Subtracting the point spread from the favorite’s score (thus the minus sign before the number) and then compare to the underdog’s score
OR
- Adding the point spread to the underdog’s score (thus the plus sign before the number) and then compare to the favorite’s score
Who Really “Won” the Super Bowl odds ?
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.